Russia’s Changing Nuclear Doctrine in the Shadow of Its Invasion of Ukraine

This study examines the factors behind Russia’s revision of its nuclear doctrine in 2024. It explores the significance of security-related documents and analyzes Russia’s nuclear doctrines of 2020 and 2024 within the context of change. The findings highlight the impact of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which reshaped regional and global balances, leading Russia to lower its nuclear deterrence threshold and broaden the conditions of its use. Both external pressures, such as Western opposition and sanctions, and internal challenges, including domestic unrest, influenced this shift. The revised doctrine reflects Russia’s attempt to assert a more aggressive nuclear posture while addressing evolving security dynamics.