Russia's Shadow in the Global South: Deterrence and Influence in Southeast Asia

As the global order transitions toward multipolarity, Russia has intensified its outreach to the Global South, seeking to reposition itself as a counterweight to Western influence. This article examines Russia’s deterrence and influence strategies in Southeast Asia, a region of growing geopolitical importance. Drawing on classical deterrence theory, offensive realism, soft power dynamics, and the concept of hedging, this study analyzes how Russia combines military cooperation, economic engagement, diplomatic initiatives, and information operations to assert its presence. The article also explores how ASEAN member states respond to these strategies through nuanced hedging behaviors that reflect their desire for strategic autonomy amid great power competition. Using a qualitative descriptive method and a multi-theoretical framework, the research highlights both the opportunities and the limitations of Russia’s engagement in Southeast Asia. While Moscow leverages historical ties, shared non-Western norms, and alternative governance models to foster cooperation, its limited economic capacity and increasing alignment with China constrain its independent appeal. The findings contribute to broader debates on regional security, deterrence credibility, and the reconfiguration of power relations in the Global South.