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23.3.05_Existential_Scenarios_RUS.pdf
Abstract:

Международные институты безопасности и обороны признают насущную необходимость включения экзистенциальных экологических сценариев и глобальных экологических угроз в анализ сценариев международной безопасности. Так, при оценке рисков экологической безопасности полезно объединять экзистенциальный риск с политикой безопасности для разработки структуры экзистенциальной безопасности и применять широкий спектр сценариев экологических проблем. Тем не менее всё ещё ощущается нехватка научных, методологических и теоретических основ, а также последовательных теоретических принципов. Разнообразие методов с неясными процессами ограничивает многие исследования, препятствуя дальнейшему изучению экзистенциальных сценариев. Это касается и спектра вероятных экзистенциальных экологических катастроф, особенно неантропогенных, неопределённых, комплексных и затрагивающих всю планету. Наше исследование исходит из того, что отсутствие узко структурированной области исследований ведёт к отсутствию адекватной теоретической базы. Такая структурированная область исследований поможет преодолеть нынешнюю теоретическую стагнацию и позволит разработать фундаментальную теоретическую базу для оценки соответствующих исследований. Благодаря новому структурному анализу, основанному на синтезе данных, наше исследование вносит вклад в разработку структуры сценариев экзистенциальной безопасности, связанных с неантропогенными глобальными планетарными катастрофами комплексного и неопределённого характера.

Ключевые слова: сценарий экзистенциальной безопасности экологическая безопасность неопределенность комплексные сценарии планетарная катастрофа выживаемость защита планеты
Метки:
Оборонная политика и планирование, Экономика, Окружающая среда, Безопасность человека, Безопасность
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Герреро-Кастро, Кристиан, и Роджер Баарс. (2024 г.) 2024. «Назад к классике: разработка сценариев экзистенциальной безопасности для глобальных неантропогенных катастроф». Connections: The Quarterly Journal 23 (3): 81-112. doi:https://doi.org/10.11610/Connections.rus.23.3.05.
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