Can Neutrality Restore Ukraine?

This article seeks to understand neutrality through the experiences of postwar Finland and Austria, endeavoring to use these states’ experiences as a prism through which to analyze neutrality’s utility as a postwar option for Ukraine. A historical assessment of the characteristics of imposed neutrality in postwar Finland and Austria helps analyze Russia’s vision of neutrality. The experiences of select postconflict states may also provide models for a neutral postwar Ukraine. A credibly armed Ukraine capable of deterring Russian aggression could survive as a neutral state. However, the necessity of Ukraine’s continued Western alignment to counter Russian aggression complicates the promise of Ukrainian neutrality as a means to achieve a ceasefire. Security guarantees are required for Ukraine to bridge the gap between a ceasefire and a sustainable, non-imposed neutrality. Ukraine’s inability to immediately realize a legitimately neutral status at the conclusion of hostilities ensures that a neutral Ukraine remains aspirational – with an important distinction. Whereas neutrality might offer a means to peaceful statehood for Ukraine, neutrality is a mechanism for the Russian Federation’s dismemberment of the Ukrainian nation-state.