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Abstract:

В статье рассматривается влияние вторжения России в Украину на отношения Европы с Россией в сфере торговли нефтью и природным газом, а также на зависимость Европы от российских энергоносителей. Помимо показателей торговли и зависимости, анализируется влияние на доверие между европейскими и российскими участниками энергорынка на основе изменений в национальной и общеевропейской политике (санкции), опросов общественного мнения и заявлений представителей компаний и правительств. Вторжение России в Украину стало переломным моментом и самым значимым событием в отношениях между Европой и Россией за последние десятилетия. Привычные индикаторы доверия – такие, как сотрудничество, заявления, стратегии хеджирования и опросы общественного мнения – указывают на долгосрочное разрушение доверия. Индикаторы со стороны России тоже свидетельствуют об утрате доверия, причём не только среди политических лидеров, но и в широких слоях населения. Новая региональная динамика торговли напоминает исторический прецедент: разрушение доверия в энергетических отношениях между Европой и Ближним Востоком в результате арабо-израильской войны и нефтяного эмбарго ОПЕК 1973 года.

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Озава, Марк. (2025 г.) 2025. «Ни шагу назад: Доверие и энергетические связи Европы с Россией после войны». Connections: The Quarterly Journal 24 (2): 159-80. doi:https://doi.org/10.11610/connections.rus.24.2.08.
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